Generated 2026-09-04T14:35+00:00 from the ledger and nothing else. Action channel: Alpaca MCP server (`uvx alpaca-mcp-server`). Audit channel: Alpaca CLI 0.0.14. Strategist: Gemini via Google ADK, read-only MCP tools.
The strategist proposes, a deterministic gate re-prices and sizes, the executor acts through Alpaca's MCP server, an independent auditor re-checks every claim through the Alpaca CLI, and position size is earned by measured calibration rather than granted by confidence.
Every order id below appears twice: once in the executor's claim (what the MCP server returned) and once in the CLI audit (what the account actually holds). Every gate decision lists its reasons. Every proposal lists the MCP tool calls it made. The raw ledger is at `ledger.json` next to this page; the code is at github.com/rodriguescarson/underwrite.
| first snapshot | equity | latest snapshot | equity | account |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03T19:03:09+00:00 | 100000 | 2026-09-04T14:35:34+00:00 | 99696.5 | PA3TNFFGMVEM |
| claims | audited | claim accuracy | silent failures | resolved | wins | Brier | ECE | risk/trade | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | None | None | 0.25% | floor |
Gate verdict: only 0/10 structures resolved; ECE undefined; Brier undefined
| time | kind | underlying | structure | qty | limit | claimed | observed | match | order |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03T19:08:07 | open | SPY | bull_put_spread | 1 | -0.64 | pending_new | filled | ✔ | 49ce68dd |
| 2026-09-03T19:13:39 | open | NVDA | bull_put_spread | 1 | -0.96 | pending_new | filled | ✔ | 927683d5 |
| 2026-09-03T19:19:15 | open | TSLA | bull_put_spread | 1 | -1.51 | pending_new | filled | ✔ | 15e5c63e |
| 2026-09-03T19:24:50 | open | TSLA | bull_put_spread | 1 | -1.37 | pending_new | filled | ✔ | d1b362d5 |
| 2026-09-03T19:36:29 | open | AAPL | bull_put_spread | 1 | -1.42 | pending_new | expired | ✔ | 0530cddb |
| 2026-09-03T19:42:06 | open | MSFT | bull_put_spread | 1 | -0.85 | pending_new | expired | ✔ | 1dfe46c8 |
| 2026-09-04T13:14:01 | close | TSLA | bull_put_spread | 1 | 1.81 | accepted | new | ✔ | 5cf3c58f |
| 2026-09-04T13:38:59 | close | TSLA | bull_put_spread | 1 | 2.36 | unknown | rejected | ✔ | a771d4cf |
| 2026-09-04T13:45:27 | open | QQQ | bull_put_spread | 1 | -0.64 | pending_new | new | ✔ | 07142764 |
| 2026-09-04T13:52:44 | open | AAPL | bull_put_spread | 1 | -0.82 | pending_new | filled | ✔ | be833fc8 |
| time | verdict | qty | reasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03T19:08:05 | accept | 1 | defined risk: width 5.00 - credit 0.66 = 4.34/share floor sizing 1x: budget $250 (0.25% of equity, calibration not yet earned) < max loss $434; the 1% hard cap still holds |
| 2026-09-03T19:13:37 | accept | 1 | defined risk: width 5.00 - credit 0.98 = 4.01/share floor sizing 1x: budget $250 (0.25% of equity, calibration not yet earned) < max loss $402; the 1% hard cap still holds |
| 2026-09-03T19:19:14 | accept | 1 | defined risk: width 5.00 - credit 1.53 = 3.46/share floor sizing 1x: budget $250 (0.25% of equity, calibration not yet earned) < max loss $346; the 1% hard cap still holds |
| 2026-09-03T19:24:48 | accept | 1 | defined risk: width 5.00 - credit 1.39 = 3.61/share floor sizing 1x: budget $250 (0.25% of equity, calibration not yet earned) < max loss $361; the 1% hard cap still holds |
| 2026-09-03T19:30:53 | reject | 0 | AAPL261009P00315000: open interest 77 < 100 AAPL261009P00310000: open interest 70 < 100 defined risk: width 5.00 - credit 1.23 = 3.77/share |
| 2026-09-03T19:36:27 | accept | 1 | defined risk: width 5.00 - credit 1.44 = 3.56/share floor sizing 1x: budget $250 (0.25% of equity, calibration not yet earned) < max loss $356; the 1% hard cap still holds |
| 2026-09-03T19:42:04 | accept | 1 | defined risk: width 5.00 - credit 0.88 = 4.12/share floor sizing 1x: budget $250 (0.25% of equity, calibration not yet earned) < max loss $412; the 1% hard cap still holds |
| 2026-09-04T13:39:56 | reject | 0 | second opinion: vetoed: Short strike 315P has only 72 open interest, below the 100 minimum required by desk constraints; Net credit of $1.165 is not achievable at current market; bid-ask shows only ~$0.78 realistically available (sell at $3.85, buy at $3.07); Portfolio already holds 4 bull put spreads creating excessive directional concentration; adding a 5th magnifies beta risk to market downturn |
| 2026-09-04T13:42:55 | reject | 0 | second opinion: vetoed: Expiration is 378 DTE, violating the 7-45 DTE constraint; Open interest is null for both strikes, cannot verify >=100 OI requirement; Extremely illiquid - daily volume shows only 2-58 contracts traded |
| 2026-09-04T13:45:25 | accept | 1 | defined risk: width 5.00 - credit 0.66 = 4.34/share floor sizing 1x: budget $249 (0.25% of equity, calibration not yet earned) < max loss $434; the 1% hard cap still holds |
| 2026-09-04T13:52:39 | accept | 1 | defined risk: width 5.00 - credit 0.84 = 4.16/share floor sizing 1x: budget $249 (0.25% of equity, calibration not yet earned) < max loss $416; the 1% hard cap still holds |
| 2026-09-04T14:06:09 | reject | 0 | second opinion: vetoed: Max loss of $452 exceeds the allowed risk of $249.39 (0.25% of equity). |
| 2026-09-04T14:12:52 | reject | 0 | second opinion: second opinion returned no parsable review — trade not taken |
| 2026-09-04T14:19:59 | reject | 0 | second opinion: vetoed: The short strike delta of -0.3085 is slightly more aggressive than the preferred 0.15-0.30 range for this strategy. |
| time | model | tool calls | structure | p_profit | thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03T19:05:02 | none | 0 | unparsed | — | |
| 2026-09-03T19:08:03 | gemini-2.5-flash | 5 | bull_put_spread | 0.7678 | SPY is expected to remain above 765.00 until the September 11, 2026 expiration. The short 765 put has a delta of -0.2322, indicating a probability of approximately 76.78% that SPY will stay above 765 at expiration, allow |
| 2026-09-03T19:10:28 | none | 0 | unparsed | — | |
| 2026-09-03T19:13:35 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 5 | bull_put_spread | 0.65 | NVDA has shown a strong upward trend in the last two days. I expect this upward momentum to continue or at least hold above 220, making a bull put spread a suitable strategy. |
| 2026-09-03T19:19:12 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 6 | bull_put_spread | 0.65 | TSLA is showing recent upward momentum, and the short put strike is chosen at a delta of approximately 0.30, providing a good probability of profit. The trade setup has favorable bid/ask spreads and sufficient open inter |
| 2026-09-03T19:24:46 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 5 | bull_put_spread | 0.71 | TSLA is unlikely to fall below 355 by expiration. The current stock price of 380.595 provides a sufficient buffer. The probability of profit is derived from the delta of the short put. The bid/ask spreads are tight and o |
| 2026-09-03T19:30:50 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 6 | bull_put_spread | 0.6 | AAPL stock price is currently 327.755. This bull put spread, with the short strike at 315.00, profits if AAPL stays above 315.00 at expiration. The delta of the short put is -0.2802, indicating a reasonable probability o |
| 2026-09-03T19:36:25 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 6 | bull_put_spread | 0.6733 | Selling a bull put spread on AAPL as it is currently trading above the short strike. The delta of the short put is -0.3267, indicating a 67.33% chance of profit. The spread is within the risk tolerance. |
| 2026-09-03T19:42:02 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 6 | bull_put_spread | 0.65 | MSFT is expected to remain above 490 by the expiration date of September 25, 2026. This is a neutral to bullish strategy, and with MSFT trading at 510.51, there is a good buffer. |
| 2026-09-04T13:39:27 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 6 | bull_put_spread | 0.72 | AAPL stock is trading at $326.565. This bull put spread is placed well below the current stock price, providing a buffer against downward movement. The time to expiration is 28 days, allowing for theta decay to contribut |
| 2026-09-04T13:39:56 | openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 | 2 | unparsed | 0.58 | |
| 2026-09-04T13:42:22 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 7 | bull_put_spread | 0.6 | IWM has been trading in a range and is currently above the short strike of 287. I expect it to stay above this level until expiration. The low delta of the short put indicates a low probability of the option expiring in |
| 2026-09-04T13:42:55 | openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 | 4 | unparsed | 0.0 | |
| 2026-09-04T13:44:44 | openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 | 8 | bull_put_spread | 0.67 | QQQ at $720.22 showing bullish momentum after bouncing from ~705 lows. The 690 short put is 4.2% OTM with 17-delta (83% probability OTM). Recent news: jobs rebound +162K, strong ETF inflows. Technical support at 705-710 |
| 2026-09-04T13:45:23 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-pro | 2 | unparsed | 0.72 | |
| 2026-09-04T13:51:51 | openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 | 9 | bull_put_spread | 0.62 | AAPL is pulling back modestly (-1.3% today) from recent highs but remains well above recent lows. The 310 strike provides 4.3% downside cushion and is 2.5% above the August low of $302. Short delta of -0.227 suggests ~77 |
| 2026-09-04T13:52:38 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-pro | 2 | unparsed | 0.68 | |
| 2026-09-04T13:59:02 | openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 | 8 | no trade | — | QQQ 675/670 bull put spread (Sep 25) offers only $0.25 credit on $5 width (5% return on $475 risk, 21 DTE). While delta -0.0954 on short suggests ~90% success probability and QQQ shows bullish recovery from $706 to $721. |
| 2026-09-04T14:05:18 | openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 | 8 | bull_put_spread | 0.7 | QQQ showing positive momentum (+0.5% today) after recovering from August lows. Currently at $721, this 685/680 bull put spread has ~5% downside cushion to short strike. The 14-delta short put suggests ~86% probability of |
| 2026-09-04T14:06:09 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-pro | 2 | unparsed | 0.66 | |
| 2026-09-04T14:12:30 | openrouter/anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 | 8 | bull_put_spread | 0.62 | QQQ at $720.50 with short 690 put 4.2% OTM, 21 DTE. Delta -0.172 implies 83% OTM probability. Recent recovery from 703 lows plus positive ETF inflows support bullish bias. IV 20.4% provides decent premium. 5-wide spread |
| 2026-09-04T14:12:52 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-pro | 0 | unparsed | — | |
| 2026-09-04T14:19:06 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 6 | bull_put_spread | 0.6938 | AMZN has seen a slight dip but overall has been stable. I believe it will remain above $250 through September 25, 2026. This bull put spread aims to profit from the stock staying above the short strike. |
| 2026-09-04T14:19:59 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-pro | 2 | unparsed | 0.6915 | |
| 2026-09-04T14:25:52 | none | 0 | unparsed | — | |
| 2026-09-04T14:31:19 | openrouter/google/gemini-2.5-flash | 5 | no trade | — | No suitable options found for QQQ within the specified DTE window and strike range with sufficient liquidity or reasonable bid/ask spreads. All available options had deltas close to 0 which makes it difficult to assess p |
none resolved yet — provisional MTM is in the latest snapshot below
| symbol | qty | avg entry | market value | unrealized P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL260925P00305000 | 1 | 1.96 | 215 | 19 |
| AAPL260925P00310000 | -1 | 2.8 | -335 | -55 |
| NVDA260918P00215000 | 1 | 1.54 | 107 | -47 |
| NVDA260918P00220000 | -1 | 2.51 | -177 | 74 |
| SPY260911P00760000 | 1 | 1.06 | 112 | 6 |
| SPY260911P00765000 | -1 | 1.75 | -200 | -25 |
| TSLA261002P00355000 | 1 | 8.25 | 1540 | 715 |
| TSLA261002P00360000 | -1 | 9.8 | -1850 | -870 |
| TSLA261016P00350000 | 1 | 9.45 | 1630 | 685 |
| TSLA261016P00355000 | -1 | 10.9 | -1895 | -805 |
| parameter | value |
|---|---|
| max_loss_per_trade_frac | 0.01 |
| floor_risk_frac | 0.0025 |
| earned_risk_frac | 0.01 |
| min_dte | 7 |
| max_dte | 45 |
| max_open_structures | 6 |
| max_structures_per_underlying | 1 |
| max_bid_ask_spread_frac | 0.15 |
| max_abs_spread | 0.1 |
| min_open_interest | 100 |
| min_p_profit | 0.55 |
| allowed_underlyings | ('SPY', 'QQQ', 'IWM', 'AAPL', 'MSFT', 'NVDA', 'AMZN', 'GOOGL', 'META', 'TSLA') |
| calib_min_resolved | 10 |
| calib_max_ece | 0.15 |
| calib_max_brier | 0.25 |
| calib_min_claim_accuracy | 0.99 |